Trade or Draft: What Every 2024 NHL Lottery Team Should Do (2024)

The 2024 NHL draft lottery took place on May 7 and determined the order for the top 16 picks in this year's event.

in a rare twist, the actual draft order ended up matching the standings as no team moved up or down. The San Jose Sharks won the right to pick first—where they will almost certainly select Macklin Celebrini—while Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus and Montreal rounded out the top five.

Now that we know where all of the non-playoff teams are picking, it's time to start looking at what they should do with those picks. Keep it? Or trade it?

Here, we take a look at each one of those situations and try to figure out what the optimal play might be.

For some, it is obvious they should keep the pick and make a selection; others might be better served using that pick as a trade chip to get immediate NHL help.

Let's take a look at each team and what they should consider doing come June 28-29.

The decision: Draft

This is the easiest decision that there is.

First of all, the Sharks are still in the early stages of a full-scale rebuild and getting the No. 1 overall pick is usually the biggest step in any of those processes.

While Macklin Celebrini may not be on the same level as a Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard type of prospect, he is still a slam dunk for the top pick and a potential franchise-changing player.

You have to take that if you are the Sharks and starting building around him.

The other key point here is the No. 1 overall pick almost never gets traded. It has happened just 10 times since 1971 and not since the 2003 draft, when the Florida Panthers moved back from No. 1 to No. 3 in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Pittsburgh ended up selecting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, and Florida opted for Nathan Horton while also getting a few players and picks in return.

The decision: Draft

The 2023 draft lottery win gave the Blackhawks their new franchise cornerstone in Connor Bedard, and he more than lived up to the hype in his first year.

The lottery balls did not go their way this season, but they still ended up with the No. 2 overall pick where they will have a strong group of potential stars to choose from.

The No. 2 pick also rarely gets moved.

And Chicago should continue that trend by sticking with it and choosing either forward Ivan Demidov or defenseman Artyom Levshunov.

The Blackhawks do have another first-round pick (from the New York Islanders) at No. 18 that they might want to consider shopping, and they also have multiple picks in the second and third rounds, as well as two first-rounders in 2025. They have other options they can trade.

But the No. 2 pick? That needs to be used on a young franchise player for the rebuild.

The decision: Draft

The Anaheim Ducks are facing a near-identical situation as the Blackhawks. A team going through a rebuild with a top pick that needs to add more impact talent, but it's also going to face some pressure to start winning at the NHL level.

The Ducks also have Edmonton's first-round pick later in the draft that might be a solid offseason trade chip to help land some immediate NHL help.

However, the No. 3 pick is a great opportunity to add another core piece to go along with Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish and the rest of their young core.

The 2024 class is top-heavy with defensem*n, and Anaheim will have a prime opportunity here at No. 3 to add to its young defense corps. Unless it moves back one or two spots to pick up some extra picks, there should be little incentive to make a switch here.

The decision: Shop it, but probably draft

The Blue Jackets have a new general manager in Don Waddell, and he may want to use this pick to find another top prospect to add to an already impressive farm system.

However, Columbus has to be facing some pressure to win—and win soon. It has a healthy amount of salary-cap space to work with and that pick could be an attractive trade chip to land a potential star.

At No. 4 overall, you are also starting to get out of the range of can't-miss category of player, and things start to get a little murkier with draft picks.

Don't trade it for the sake of trading it. But maybe at least see what its value is.

The decision: Draft

The Canadiens are still in that range where picks are unlikely to be traded and would take a massive offer to consider moving it.

Teams simply don't move out of the top five when they end up there. Sure, every general manager will say they are willing to listen, but getting an offer to convince somebody to move off of this spot almost never happens.

That's because this is still a place where you have a decent chance to land a star, and the Canadiens still need more potential impact players for their rebuild.

They might listen. They might field some offers. But standing pat and making the pick is the most likely—and probably safest—option here.

The decision: Trade

Not only should Utah try to trade this pick, but it should also be going big-game hunting for a star and use it as a key piece of trade bait.

The new franchise is arriving in a new market with new ownership and is going to be looking to win right out of the gate to help start building a new fanbase.

However, there is already a decent core of young talent here with a fully stocked cupboard of draft picks in the coming years, and this is an opportunity to start operating like a fully functioning NHL team.

The No. 6 overall pick would be a great opportunity to get bold, put the salary-cap space to use and try to do something that will help produce immediate results in a new market.

The decision: Draft

Given how disappointing the 2023-24 season was for the Senators and how much pressure there is for them to win right away, there would be some temptation to put this pick on the market, especially with two first-round picks (the No. 25 from Boston) in this class.

However, the Senators have one of the NHL's worst farm systems and prospect pools, and they need to put some serious effort into trying to rebuild that. Having two first-round picks, including a top-10 selection, would be a good way to start doing that.

Resist the temptation to move that pick and try to bring in more young talent to the organization.

The decision: Shop it

Even though the Seattle Kraken are entering only their fourth season in the NHL and are still in the early stages of building, they have done a good job accumulating young talent and have a solid collection of prospects and a decent farm system.

Matty Beniers took a step backward this season but remains a promising young star, while Shane Wright is also coming along. There is depth and potential high-end talent here.

Despite their struggles on the ice at the NHL level this season, this is a team that isn't that far away from being a potential contender in the Western Conference with the right moves.

The Kraken have more than $23 million in salary-cap space with 15 players already under contract and a desperate need for more offensive talent. This could be an attractive trade chip to help acquire some help in that regard.

The decision: Draft

The Flames are on the verge of entering what could be a significant rebuild.

They have missed the playoffs two years in a row, have some terrible contracts on the roster and a solid-but-not-great farm system that has more quantity than quality.

As of now, Calgary has nine picks in the 2024 class, including two in each of the first three rounds.

Rather than chase after a wild-card spot, it would be better served using them to take some swings for the fences in the draft and trying to land more young, impact players to add to its farm system.

Sometimes, the key to finding a star in the draft is giving yourself more opportunities. The Flames are positioned to have a lot of opportunities in this class. They should put their focus in that.

The decision: Trade

This is not the position the Devils expected to be in when the 2023-24 NHL season began.

They were supposed to be in the top 10 of the standings and competing for a Stanley Cup.

However, because of injuries, poor goaltending and some questionable coaching, New Jersey ended up being one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season.

As soon as the Devils didn't win the draft lottery or make a big move up the draft board, they should have put this pick on the market. They have some real needs to address on an otherwise contending roster, with goalie being one of the biggest.

They neglected that position this past offseason and cannot afford to neglect it again.

If somebody like Nashville's Juuse Saros is available, the Devils should be willing to part with this pick to make it happen.

The decision: Trade

As soon as Buffalo didn't move up in the lottery, it should have been contemplating what sort of trades could be made with this pick.

The Sabres have missed the playoffs 13 years in a row, and the 2023-24 season was perhaps the most disappointing in that infamous streak because it began with such high expectations.

This was supposed to be the year when the drought ended and they got back to the playoffs. Instead, the misery continued.

There is immense pressure for this team to make the playoffs, and using the No. 11 pick to select a player who might be a good NHLer in a couple of years is not going to help them accomplish that. They need to do something to get into the playoffs this season.

The decision: Draft, but consider a trade

The Philadelphia Flyers might be in the most interesting situation in this draft class.

They are clearly still in a rebuild, and despite overachieving for most of the 2023-24 season and occupying a playoff spot for most of the year, they still became sellers at the trade deadline. They know what their timeline is and where they are. They are still very much building here for the long term.

However, they also have two first-round picks this year (No. 12 and Florida's No. 30 pick) and could have two second-round picks (a compensatory pick and potentially Columbus' pick as part of a conditional trade). That offers some options to get creative.

Perhaps the Flyers could try to package some of those picks to make a move up the draft board to go for a potential star if somebody slides down a few spots.

They could keep No. 12 and use Florida's pick as a trade chip for more immediate NHL help.

Or they could trade No. 12 and keep Florida's pick.

Or they could simply keep all of them and maintain the focus on the long-term goal.

All of those options should be explored.

The decision: Draft

The Minnesota Wild are facing at least one more year of a salary-cap crunch due to the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, leaving them with almost zero flexibility on the NHL roster for the 2024-25 season. That limits their potential trade options this offseason.

It might make more sense to simply hold onto this selection and keep bringing more young talent into the system.

The only trade option that should be explored here is moving back in the draft in an effort to accumulate more picks.

The Wild only have six picks in this year's class and no picks in the third round. They could use more quantity in that regard.

The decision: Draft

The Sharks ended up with a second pick in the top 15, getting the Pittsburgh Penguins' selection as a result of the Erik Karlsson trade a year ago.

This pick was top-10 protected, and had the Penguins moved up in the lottery they would have had the option to keep that pick and send San Jose their 2025 selection instead.

Pittsburgh obviously did not have that decision to make as its pick remains at No. 14.

The Sharks need as much young talent as they can get and are not even remotely close to being a playoff contender.

Keep the pick and take the highest upside player available regardless of position and hope for the best.

The decision: Trade

The time has come for the Detroit Red Wings to make the playoffs and start contending again.

They are far enough into the rebuild and the Steve Yzerman era, and it's playoffs or bust this season. To get there, though, the Red Wings have to address some significant issues on their roster, especially preventing goals.

They need another top-four defenseman to complement Moritz Seider, who took on a Herculean role this season to make up for the team's lack of defensive depth, and they also need an upgrade in goal.

This is the point in the draft where this pick might have more long-term value as a trade chip to land immediate NHL help than it does as an actual selection.

At this point in the draft, you have less than a 50 percent chance of landing a star. Even if the pick does turn out to be something special, it is probably going to take a few years to see the rewards.

If the Red Wings can get somebody who can help right now—a top-four defensem*n, a goalie upgrade—it would be worth it.

The decision: Shop the pick, maybe move back

In some ways the St. Louis Blues are in the worst possible position a professional sports team can be in: Everything about them at this point is just...average.

They have an average roster that finished with an average record, resulting in a middle-of-the-pack draft pick, with an average farm system sitting behind all of it.

Not good enough to seriously compete. Not bad enough to get a top pick to change the franchise. Not hopeless enough to start a full-scale rebuild.

That is a brutal cycle to try to break out of. There is no one trade here that is going to to change the short-term future, and the No. 16 pick is likely to just add more middle-of-the-pack talent.

The optimal play here might be to try to shop the pick to move back and accumulate more selections to take more swings.